Alternative to P-TOMS: abolition of CFA, return to war- Prof Oberst

[TamilNet, Wednesday, 29 June 2005, 22:44 GMT]
Warning that failure of P-TOMS will lead to a breakdown in CFA and possible return to war, Robert C. Oberst, Professor of Political Science at Nebraska Wesleyan University, said on the Muslim question, "Although the way in which the P-TOMS was created is an insult to the Muslim community, the actual document appears to enhance their power," when TamilNet asked for his views on the aid deal signed between the Government of Sri Lanka and the Liberation Tigers.

Full text of Professor Oberst's responses to TamilNet's questions follows:

TamilNet: What do you think the immediate impact of the Joint Mechanism on tsunami related reconstruction will be? What is the likelihood that the JM will succeed in its objective?
Oberst: The Boxing Day Tsunami created a serious problem brought on by the unusual status of the ceasefire agreement between the LTTE and the Government of Sri Lanka. The LTTE was given a de facto right by the ceasefire agreement to govern in the areas of their control. However, the idea of LTTE governance in these areas was not accepted by many Sinhalese nationalists. The tsunami thrust this issue into the national debate. The tsunami damage could not be repaired in the LTTE controlled areas without LTTE involvement. The P-TOMS resolves this issue and allows the reconstruction to begin. The alternative to the P-TOMS was the abolition of the ceasefire agreement and a return to war. This choice, was, apparently, acceptable to some Sinhalese nationalists.

It is unfortunate that it took six months to begin the reconstruction in earnest. Even the appointment of former U.S. president, Bill Clinton as a United Nations representative in charge of Tsunami rebuilding, resulted in his failure to help the Sri Lankan parties begin the reconstruction process President Kumaratunga has taken a courageous move which has threatened her government, however, for humanitarian reasons, it was the right move.

The reconstruction process can now begin, but it will not be easy. The reconstruction of war destroyed areas had encountered serious problems before the tsunami. The shortage of skilled artisans to rebuild as well as lack of equipment plagued pre-tsunami reconstruction. This problem will be made even more serious by the massive rebuilding effort that will follow the P-TOMS agreement. It is hoped that the administrative structure that is created by the P-TOMS will help to efficiently allocate the resources that are available for reconstruction. If this is the case, the shortages of skilled labor and equipment will be reduced and what labor and equipment that is available will be fairly distributed.

The P-TOMS will not automatically mean that the rebuilding will occur. However, without the agreement, there would be limited reconstruction. With the agreement, there is hope that it will allow more efficient distribution of resources and thus, facilitate the rebuilding process.

TamilNet: Do you think Muslims should have been included in a tripatrite deal?
Oberst: The Muslims of the north and east have been ignored repeatedly by Sri Lankan governments. Their exclusion from the P-TOMS negotiation process was to be expected, based on past experience. The Muslim community has serious reasons to fear what will happen to them. The apathy of Sri Lankan governments to their needs as well as the primary responsibility of the LTTE to address the needs of the Sri Lanka Tamil community does not offer hope to the Muslims. However, the Muslim community’s opposition to the P-TOMS appears to be more an issue of their being snubbed by the process rather than any substantive issues involved in the agreement.

In fact, the P-TOMS appears to have been created in a way which will protect Muslim interests. The High Level Committee is organized to give each party a veto power over the decisions of the committee. As a result, the Muslim representatives can prevent actions which may be detrimental to their community.

The regional committees provide the LTTE with five representatives while the Muslims receive 3 and the government 2 members. The result is the need for the representatives of any community to seek support from one of the other groups in order to receive at least 50 percent of the votes. Thus, the Muslims will be the balance of power between the LTTE and the Government of Sri Lanka.

A unique feature of the regional committee is the need for a super majority to reject proposals from the district development committees. This effectively creates a situation where the Muslims will have no less power than they currently have in the development process. If the district development committees adequately represent Muslim interests, they will continue to do so.

Although the way in which the P-TOMS was created is an insult to the Muslim community, the actual document appears to enhance their power. Their exclusion may have insulted them, however, when considers the six months it took to address the issue of an urgent need for aid to the tsunami victims, the addition of a third negotiating party to the discussions would have only delayed the creation of an agreement.

TamilNet: Do you think the Joint Mechanism will help to advance the peace process forward?
Oberst: The P-TOMS is the first successful effort of cooperation between the government of Sri Lanka and the LTTE in over two years. It can only help to further the peace process. If the flight of the extreme nationalists from the government results in their political marginalization, the more progressive forces in Sri Lankan Sinhalese politics can once again work toward peace. So far, it appears that the forces who have opposed the changes necessary to bring peace have lost power. If this trend continues, there is hope that the Sinhalese will be able to negotiate a fair solution to the Sri Lankan conflict.

However, there are other ways in which the P-Toms will result in the potential to move towards peace.

1. The agreement offers the opportunity for the government and LTTE to work together. The more contact and interaction they have, the greater the possibility that they will develop mutual trust. This may have a very long lasting and positive impact on the future of the peace process.
2. The P-TOMS provides a remarkable opportunity to the LTTE to show to Sinhalese nationalists that they do not pose a threat, and more importantly, that they can work with the Sinhalese and Muslim community in a responsible manner. If the LTTE acts cooperatively and responsibly, the high visibility that the P-TOMS will have in Sinhalese society will help to force Sinhalese nationalists to deal with the apparent contradiction between the reality of the process and their own predictions of doom if the LTTE is given a role in the reconstruction process. Although this will not change the minds of the most dedicated Sinhalese nationalists, it may help some to change their opinions or offer support to the peace process.
3. The P-TOMS creates an administrative structure to address development issues. There is a strong likelihood that the structure will offer a model (or elements of one) to be used in future development efforts. If the high level committee can coordinate the tsunami rebuilding effort, it may offer a model that can be utilized by the development community.
4. My own meetings with government development workers have resulted in a nearly universal praise for the LTTE’s development efforts. They have cited efficiency, corruption free projects and most importantly, results driven efforts. The LTTE approach to development may offer some help to the government with ideas that can be adopted in the government development efforts. Once again, this can help to open up communication between the two sides.
5. If the P-TOMS administrative structure works as expected, it will help to fairly allocate development resources between the three communities. A fair allocation of resources will help to show both Muslim and Tamil leaders that the government of Sri Lanka can distribute resources fairly.
6. Finally, if the political battle in the governing alliance results in the weakening of the forces opposed to peace, Sri Lanka will benefit. A return to war will only hurt Sinhalese Buddhism and the future of the Sinhalese people. Already the return of Dilan Perera to a position of support for the peace process is a positive sign. Perera was previously a strong supporter of peaceful accommodation between the ethnic communities but joined the Patriotic National Movement and became an important spokesman for them. The appearance of more open minded nationalists in support of the peace process will become a positive force to help the process move forward in the Sinhalese community.

Professor Robert C.Oberst is a Professor of Political Science at Nebraska Wesleyan University in the US. He was a honorary visiting professor of political science, 1996-'97, University of Peradeniya and has authored several books including "Government and Politics in South Asia" and "Legislators, Development and Representation in Sri Lanka."

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