Multipolar rivalries elevate Indian Ocean geopolitics

[TamilNet, Thursday, 05 March 2026, 18:16 GMT]
Intensifying rivalries between major powers are reshaping global geopolitics and elevating the strategic importance of the Indian Ocean. As the unipolar dominance of the United States faces increasing challenges from Russia and China, emerging fractures within the Western alliance system and expanding military confrontations across several regions are drawing renewed attention to the island of Sri Lanka. Situated at a critical maritime crossroads, the island is becoming increasingly significant within the evolving strategic calculations of competing global powers.

Growing tensions between Canada, the European Union and the United States became increasingly visible during the 56th World Economic Forum held from 19 to 23 January 2026 in Davos, Switzerland. The forum, often portrayed as a platform for Western consensus, instead exposed widening divisions within the alliance system that has sustained United States global dominance since the end of the Cold War. Statements made by European and North American leaders at Davos revealed a growing awareness that the geopolitical foundations of the post Cold War order are undergoing structural change.

In his address on 20 January 2026, French President Emmanuel Macron sharply criticised increasingly coercive United States economic policies. He warned that American trade agreements were undermining European export interests, demanding maximum concessions while seeking to “weaken and subordinate Europe” through escalating tariffs. Macron also highlighted Chinese competition as another challenge to Europe’s economic standing and emphasised the need for Europe to consolidate itself as a geopolitical superpower.

The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, speaking on the same day, reaffirmed the European Union’s support for Ukraine and Denmark’s sovereignty over Greenland. Addressing the shifting global order, she warned that the structural changes facing Europe were permanent. Nostalgia for the old order would not restore it, she argued, and Europe must therefore develop a new independent strategic posture.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney echoed similar concerns. He stated that the era of amicable United States dominance was coming to an end. For decades Western allies served under and accepted American leadership because it offered secure sea lanes, financial stability and collective security.

Carney observed that Western nations had long engaged in the rituals of American leadership while avoiding “calling out” the disparity between rhetoric and reality. He stated that this agreement no longer functions and that the world is now experiencing a rupture rather than a transition.

Just days before Davos, on 16 January 2026, Carney undertook a two day state visit to Beijing, the first by a Canadian head of government since 2017. The visit led to the announcement of a new Canada China strategic partnership involving long term investments reportedly worth one trillion dollars and emphasising multilateralism in international relations.

In response to comments from European and Canadian leaders, United States President Donald Trump defended Washington’s leadership within NATO during his speech on 21 January. Trump took credit for compelling NATO member states to boost military expenditure and highlighted that the war in Ukraine presents a much greater security threat to Europe than to the United States because of geographic distance.

On 27 January 2026, von der Leyen visited New Delhi, where she met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The visit concluded with the signing of a long negotiated free trade agreement together with a new EU India security and defence partnership.

During the Munich Security Conference held between 13 and 15 February 2026 in Munich, Germany, similar tendencies surfaced. German head of state Friedrich Merz delivered the opening speech in which he recognised the end of the “unipolar moment” that followed the fall of the Berlin Wall and argued for the consolidation of Europe’s military, economic and technological capacity. Merz spoke of the need to avoid strategic dependencies and to build diversified trade relations in the emerging geopolitical environment. While warning against Russia in Ukraine and China’s expanding global ambitions, he opposed a complete break from the current United States strategic framework and instead advocated a middle path. He emphasised that Europe’s priority should be strengthening itself within NATO. The following day a similar posture was reflected in the speech delivered by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

United States Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Marco Rubio in his speech reflected United States ambitions to assert dominance across several regions of the globe while reassuring European audiences that they remain part of a special relationship with America. While invoking a shared Western civilisational heritage rooted in European colonial expansion, Rubio’s speech was essentially a call for Europe to rally behind a renewed posture of United States imperial power that seeks to reverse the decline of its global dominance. He stated that America is charting the path for a new century of prosperity and that it wishes to pursue that path together with its allies and oldest friends in Europe.

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Unipolarity and United States Global Dominance

The unipolar world that emerged after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 allowed the United States to pursue unparalleled military, economic and political dominance over the global order.

Within this framework United States strategic interests and power projection often determined the outcomes of national conflicts and liberation struggles worldwide. A United States conditioned United Nations emerged while the international order based on the UN Charter was increasingly displaced by what Washington described as a rules based international order defined largely by United States geopolitical priorities.

During this period the United States led numerous regime change operations through direct military intervention and proxy warfare. NATO interventions dismantled Yugoslavia in the 1990s and secured the Balkans for long term United States strategic presence. The invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan reshaped the Middle East and Central Asia in the 2000s. In the 2010s Western powers coordinated armed opposition forces in Libya and Syria against the governments of Muammar Gaddafi and Bashar al Assad.

United States involvement in Ukraine since 1991 ultimately culminated in the overthrow of Viktor Yanukovych’s Russia aligned government during the 2014 Euromaidan uprising. The governments that followed pursued conflict against Russian speaking populations in eastern Ukraine and aligned with broader United States geopolitical objectives aimed at weakening Russia.

Western corporate media largely repeated the narratives of this United States led order. Movements aligned with Washington’s interests were legitimised while liberation struggles that challenged its geopolitical aims were marginalised or demonised.

The national liberation struggle of the Eezham Tamils developed within this wider global context. The first two Eelam wars took place during the final phase of the Cold War as the Soviet Union weakened and India gradually shifted toward the United States.

At the same time United States China cooperation deepened following the Sino Soviet split. Secret diplomatic contacts facilitated by Henry Kissinger culminated in United States President Richard Nixon’s historic visit to Beijing in 1972 and the subsequent normalisation of diplomatic relations between Washington and Beijing in 1979 with Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai playing a central role in the rapprochement.

This alignment laid the foundations for the highly interconnected United States and Chinese economies that exist today which complicates their ongoing rivalry.

For the island of ‘Sri Lanka’, this meant that the United States and China were not strategic adversaries for decades. Chinese economic engagement with Colombo during the 2000s up to the final stages of the Eezham Tamil genocide at Mullivaikkal in 2009 largely occurred within a broader United States dominated strategic framework that also included British and Israeli support for the Sri Lankan military campaign.

While the period between 1991 and 2008 marked the height of United States unipolar dominance the following years signalled its gradual decline. Russia’s increasingly assertive stance expressed by President Vladimir Putin at the Munich Security Conference in 2007 indicated growing resistance to United States hegemony.

Economic rivalry between Washington and Beijing intensified further with the Obama administration’s Pivot to Asia strategy aimed at countering Chinese influence in the Indo Pacific.

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Declining Hegemon and Escalating Confrontations

An emerging multipolar order is becoming more evident through the strengthening of BRICS within a Russian Chinese strategic partnership despite widespread Western sanctions.

Russia’s capacity to sustain its war effort in Ukraine despite unprecedented support for Kyiv from the United States, the European Union and NATO demonstrates the limits of Western dominance. Meanwhile divisions between Washington and its European allies and within Europe have grown wider.

United States confrontations with China and Russia have increased across several regions including Eastern Europe, the Middle East and South America. Relations between Washington and European capitals have also become strained because of United States interest in acquiring Greenland and tariffs imposed to pressure European governments into strategic alignment.

The Trump administration has intensified long standing efforts aimed at regime change in Russia, Venezuela and Iran. On 3 January the United States military reportedly attacked Venezuela and abducted President Nicolás Maduro while seizing control of Venezuelan oil distribution networks.

Meanwhile two Russian flagged merchant ships were seized by the United States in January 2026 in the Caribbean and North Atlantic. On 3 March 2026 a Russian liquefied natural gas carrier was attacked allegedly by Ukrainian drones south of Malta in the Mediterranean Sea.

In the Black Sea theatre the Russia Ukraine war has seen repeated Ukrainian attacks supported by the United States and the United Kingdom including drone strikes targeting Russian commercial and naval ships and strategic facilities. There have also been several Ukrainian missile and drone strikes aided by United States and United Kingdom intelligence inside Russia targeting strategic facilities including its nuclear and military industrial infrastructure.

Washington’s actions in Venezuela exemplify a wider effort to reassert influence in the Western Hemisphere and revive the Monroe Doctrine as outlined in the 2025 United States National Security Strategy.

* * *

War Against Iran

Recent developments laid the foundation for coordinated military operations by Washington and Tel Aviv against Iran under the code names Epic Fury and Lion’s Roar which commenced on 28 February 2026.

During January and February 2026 the United States deployed additional naval and air assets to bases across the South Caucasus, the Middle East and the northern Indian Ocean.

United States naval forces conducted joint exercises with Israel in the Red Sea including operations near the Israeli port of Eilat.

Iran in turn held the Maritime Security Belt naval exercise with Russia and China and conducted its own naval drill known as Smart Control on 21 February 2026 in the Strait of Hormuz.

Indirect negotiations also took place between Washington and Tehran through Omani mediation. Discussions held in Muscat involved United States envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and the Iranian delegation led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Following the talks on 7 February 2026 the United States envoys and the commander of CENTCOM visited the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln deployed in the Arabian Sea.

On the same day Araghchi warned that Iran’s missile programme would not be open to negotiations and stated that any attack on Iran would lead to retaliation against United States bases in the region.

A second United States aircraft carrier battle group led by the USS Gerald R. Ford moved into the western Mediterranean before proceeding toward Israel’s port of Haifa.

Iran’s geography and missile capabilities place United States naval assets operating in the eastern Mediterranean and the northern and western sections of the Indian Ocean within range of potential retaliation.

Despite the ongoing negotiations Iran was attacked. Initial United States and Israeli strikes targeted Iran’s political and military leadership. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed on 28 February 2026. The air and missile campaign quickly expanded to target multiple cities and sites across Iran.

Iran responded by launching military operations on several fronts targeting United States bases in the region as well as Israel and Saudi Arabia. United States bases in Iraq, Jordan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain have been targeted multiple times since then. On 1 March 2026 the United States Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama, Bahrain sustained significant damage during Iranian attacks.

The conflict also spread into the eastern Mediterranean. Drones struck the British air base at RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus on 1 March while several additional drones were intercepted the following day.

After initially refusing Prime Minister Keir Starmer accepted a United States request to allow the use of United Kingdom bases in operations against Iran but ruled out joining offensive actions.

Israel also launched strikes inside Lebanon and Hezbollah responded with operations against Israeli targets.

On 5 March 2026 Le Monde reported that the French military allowed temporary use of its bases in the Middle East by the United States for operations against Iran.

Spain resisted United States pressure and rejected requests to use two jointly operated bases for attacks against Iran. The decision prompted several United States aircraft to leave the base and led to threats from the United States president to halt trade between the two countries.

The threat of Iranian attacks on shipping has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz since the outbreak of the war. Maritime insurers and shipping companies have become unwilling to provide coverage for vessels operating in the Persian Gulf and surrounding waters.

Maritime trade analysts have pointed to the need for ships carrying oil, natural gas and other goods to redirect eastward into the Indian Ocean to access port facilities. In this context the island of Sri Lanka and Australia are emerging as preferred destinations.

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The island of ‘Sri Lanka’ in the Strategic Architecture of the Indian Ocean

The prolonged naval campaign carried out by United States led coalitions against Ansar Allah in Yemen between December 2023 and May 2025 revealed the operational vulnerabilities of United States naval forces operating in waters near the Middle East.

Despite more than two years of operations the United States ultimately withdrew its assembled forces without achieving its objective of neutralising the Houthis. Houthi drones and missiles repeatedly targeted the aircraft carrier USS Harry S Truman and its battle group.

Sri Lanka also took part in these operations. The Sri Lanka Navy deployed the offshore patrol vessel SLNS Samudura which was formerly the United States Coast Guard cutter USCGC Courageous. The vessel was donated to Sri Lanka by the United States in 2004 and is based in Trincomalee.

In July 2025 United States Ambassador Julie Chung praised Sri Lanka’s involvement in Operation Prosperity Guardian and highlighted the provision of United States military hardware to Sri Lanka over the past two decades.

On 4 March 2026 Sri Lankan President Anura Dissanayake posted on X after a phone call with his UAE counterpart following Iranian attacks on United States bases. He expressed solidarity and condemned violence and terrorism and wrote that Sri Lanka stands firmly with the UAE and is ready to assist in any way possible.

On the same day an Iranian destroyer that had earlier participated in the 2026 International Fleet Review and MILAN exercise in Visakhapatnam in India was sunk by United States naval forces west of the coast of Galle. Sri Lankan naval assets were dispatched to assist survivors and recover the dead.

On 5 March 2026 Colombo media reported that another Iranian vessel sent distress signals off the coast of the island.

During a press conference on 4 March 2026 at the Pentagon United States Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated that an American submarine in the Indian Ocean had sunk an Iranian warship with a torpedo.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded on X stating that the United States had committed an atrocity at sea two thousand miles away from Iran’s shores and warned that the United States would come to regret the precedent it had set.

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For Eezham Tamils and Sri Lanka in particular the intensifying geopolitical rivalries described above are increasing the strategic significance of the northern and western regions of the Indian Ocean. Sri Lanka’s geographic location makes the island an ideal platform from which naval and air power can be projected into the Middle East and across the broader Indian Ocean.

The strategic importance of the Sri Lankan state within Washington’s military framework is therefore growing as global rivalries intensify.

The late TamilNet senior editor Sivaram recognised these dynamics long ago. His 2005 article “US’s Strategic Interests in Sri Lanka” remains essential reading for understanding the enduring geopolitical importance of the island and its implications for the Tamil national question.

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